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Tonight's best shot

Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA @ CHA · Starts at PF · 6:00 PM ET

18.5%chance to score the first basket+425books 17.9%-3%

• Heat win the tip 73% · score first 58%
• Takes the team's 1st shot 18% · 4th tonight
• 33% of his early shots at the rim

Open MIA @ CHA

Likeliest first scorersEvery game · top 8

1

Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA v CHA · PF1st shot 18%+42518.5%

2

Bam AdebayoMIA v CHA · C1st shot 47%+50018.5%

3

Brandon MillerCHA v MIA · SF1st shot 35%+75015.0%

4

Davion MitchellMIA v CHA · PG1st shot 14%+105011.5%

5

Naz ReidCHA v MIA · PF1st shot 45%+100011.2%

6

Moussa DiabateCHA v MIA · C1st shot 13%+105010.4%

7

Andrew WigginsMIA v CHA · SF1st shot 15%+10005.7%

8

Sion JamesCHA v MIA · SG1st shot 0%+14001.8%

Every gameClick a game for the full breakdown

MIA6:00 PM ETCHA

Bam Adebayo73%Opening tip

Moussa Diabate27%58%Scores first42%46%1st trip scores47%Likeliest scorersMIAChance

Giannis AntetokounmpoTakes the 1st shot 18%18.5%

Bam AdebayoTakes the 1st shot 47%18.5%CHAChance

Brandon MillerTakes the 1st shot 35%15.0%

Naz ReidTakes the 1st shot 45%11.2%Top 3 together 52%Full matchup

MIL@PHI7:30 PM ETMembers only

BKN@CLE7:30 PM ETMembers only

WAS@CHI8:00 PM ETMembers only

SA@DAL8:00 PM ETMembers only

HOU@ATL8:30 PM ETMembers only

NO@DEN9:00 PM ETMembers only

GS@PHO10:00 PM ETMembers only

League leaders

All teamsPlaying this day

2026-272025-26

Players

First basketsTakes the 1st shotTip winners

	Player	Starts	FB	FB rate
1	De'Aaron FoxSA	12	5	42%
2	John CollinsDET	10	4	40%
3	Bam AdebayoMIA	11	4	36%
4	Victor WembanyamaSA	12	4	33%
5	Paul GeorgeBOS	9	3	33%
6	Jayson TatumBOS	9	3	33%
7	Austin ReavesLAL	10	3	30%
8	Jarrett AllenCLE	10	3	30%
9	Jalen BrunsonNY	11	3	27%
10	LaMelo BallMIN	11	3	27%

Teams that score firstAll 30 teams

					Scores 1st after
	Team	Games	Won tip	Scores 1st	Won tip	Lost tip
1	Spurs	12	92%	92%	91%	100%
2	Celtics	10	70%	80%	71%	100%
3	Heat	11	73%	73%	88%	33%
4	Lakers	11	82%	73%	78%	50%
5	Pacers	11	64%	73%	71%	75%
6	Timberwolves	11	45%	64%	100%	33%
7	Pistons	10	30%	60%	33%	71%
8	Hawks	12	42%	58%	60%	57%
9	Bucks	12	42%	58%	40%	71%
10	Nuggets	9	56%	56%	80%	25%

The first basket is the game's first made field goal; free throws do not count. Each game uses its own matchup page's numbers: this season once both teams have ten games, else last season, with the jumper who has been jumping for each team. Our chances cover the likely starters only. League leaders count regular season and NBA Cup games with play by play. Prices as of 10:07 PM.